Section 3.3 Responses

3. It is alleged that proxy temperature deductions and instrumental temperature data have been improperly combined to conceal mismatch between the two data series An attempt to hide the difficulty of combining these two data series and to mislead is alleged to be revealed in the following sentence in a November 1999 email from Professor Phillip Jones which is alleged to imply a conscious attempt to mislead: “I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (i.e. from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline”. 


3  What method do you use?


2 Responses to “Section 3.3 Responses”

  1. Jimchip Says:

    1104893567 4 Jan 2005 (Overpeck to Briffa): This has relevance to several of the response questions.

    From: Jonathan Overpeck
    Subject: Fwd: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data

    “The primary criticism of McIntyre and McKitrick, which has gotten a lot of play on the Internet, is that Mann et al. transformed each tree ring prior to calculating PCs by subtracting the 1902-1980 mean, rather than using the length of the full time series (e.g., 1400-1980), as is generally done. M&M claim that when they used that procedure with a red noise spectrum, it always resulted in a ‘hockey stick’. Is this true? If so, it constitutes a devastating criticism of the approach; if not, it should be refuted. While IPCC cannot be expected to respond to every criticism a priori, this one has gotten such publicity it would be foolhardy to avoid it.
    In addition, there are other valid criticisms to the PC approach. Assuming that the PC structure stays the same was acknowledged in the Mann et al paper as somewhat risky, given the possibility of altered climate forcing (e.g., solar).”

  2. jimchip Says:

    0963233839.txt Also applies to 1.2 and 3.2

    The graph patches together 3 things: Mann et al NH mean annual temps + 2
    sigma standard error for AD1000-1980, + instrumental data for 1981-1998 +
    IPCC (“do not quote, do not cite” projections for GLOBAL temperature for
    the next 100 years, relative to 1998.

    From: “Raymond S. Bradley”
    To: Frank Oldfield
    Subject: Re: the ghost of futures past
    Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2000 08:57:19 -0400

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