Section 2.3 Responses

2. The allegation that CRU has colluded in attempting to diminish the significance of data that might appear to conflict with the 20th century global warming hypothesis The CRU group, in consultation with Professor Michael Mann, is alleged to have systematically attempted to diminish the significance of the Medieval Warm Period, evidenced by an email from Mann 4th June 2003: “I think that trying to adopt a timeframe of 2K, rather than the usual 1K, addresses a good earlier point that Peck made w/ regard to the memo, that it would be nice to try to “contain” the putative “MWP”, even if we don’t yet have a hemispheric mean reconstruction available that far back [Phil and I have one in review–not sure it is kosher to show that yet though–I’ve put in an inquiry to Judy Jacobs at AGU about this].” The use of the words “contain” and “putative” are alleged to imply an improper intention to diminish the magnitude and significance of the MWP so as to emphasise the late 20th century warming.

QUESTIONS TO ADDRESS

 3. How important is the assertion of “unprecedented late 20th century warming” in the argument for anthropogenic forcing of climate?

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4 Responses to “Section 2.3 Responses”

  1. Jimchip Says:

    see also https://crutapeletters.wordpress.com/section-1-responses/section-1-2-response/#comment-28 it seemd to apply to both

    1220039621

    From: Michael Mann
    To: “Thomas.R.Karl”
    Subject: Re: paper on smoothing
    Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2008 15:53:41 -0400

    >> Curtis Covey wrote:
    >>> Very interesting. Does it mean that the apparent leveling-off of
    >>> global mean surface temperature since the turn of the century is due to “artificial suppression of trends near the time series boundaries” ?

    Mann: yeah, its statistically real, but an artifact almost certainly of
    natural variability. As Josh Willis nicely pointed out in a recent
    interview, anyone citing this as a reason to doubt the reality of
    anthropogenic climate change is like a vegas roller thinking he can beat
    the system because he’s on a momentary winning streak…

  2. jimchip Says:

    1121869083.txt

    From: Keith Briffa
    To: Tim Osborn
    Subject: Fwd: Re: thoughts and Figure for MWP box
    Date: Wed Jul 20 10:18:03 2005

    Date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 15:38:31 +0100
    To: Tom Crowley , Jonathan Overpeck
    From: Keith Briffa

    4) some of your data are from virtually the same site – Mangazeja and yamal are both w.
    siberia – I composited data available from multiple sites to produce one time series,
    which is equally counted against the other regions, which might (greenland, w.U.S., e.
    Asia) or might not have multiple records in them

    Just to reiterate – I understood after the group chat with Susan S. in Beijing , that we
    were being asked to try to produce a “cloud” diagram including as many of “original”
    predictor series ,from all the reconstructions, to see if it provided an “obvious”
    picture of the unprecedented warming over the last millennium or so. Tim and I are in no
    way trying t produce a different Figure for the sake of producing a different Figure .
    In practice this is hard to do (because some records are sensible “local” composites
    already, and how far do you go in showing all input data?

  3. Jimchip Says:

    1060196763.txt Hulme cc’d Heat Wave! WWF funding…

    From: “Stephan Singer”
    To: ,, , , , , , , , , , ,
    Subject: economic costs of european heat wave
    Date: Wed, 06 Aug 2003 15:06:03 +0200
    Cc: ,, “Sible Schone” , “Catarina Cardoso” , , “Oliver Rapf” , , “Katherine Silverthorne” , “Lara Hansen”

    dear all,
    i think we all have seen [if not commented on] the devastating heat
    wave presently in europe – gives us a feeling on truly global warming.
    WWF has assured some money – a few thousand EUROS what is not much to
    be honest but at least a start – to ask an economist with climate policy
    understanding to assess in a short but fleshy paper [max 10 pages] the
    economic costs of these weather extremes in europe. This can be put in
    context with the mitigation costs of ambitious climate policies which
    are often quoted as a barrier to clean technologies unfortunately. I
    think, we as an NGO working on climate policy need such a document
    pretty soon for the public and for informed decision makers in order to
    get a) a debate started and b) in order to get into the media the
    context between climate extremes/desasters/costs and finally the link
    between weather extremes and energy – just the solutions parts what
    still is not communicated at all.
    In short, can you advise us on a competent author who is readily
    available [can be one of you, of course], to bring together the
    conventionally accessible costs of reduced transport loads on rivers, in
    railway networks, forest fires, disruption of water supply and
    irrigation, closure of hydro power and even nuclear in some locations,
    health costs, agricultural failures [if accessible] etc
    etcetc…resulting from the heat wave?
    Of course, i could not sent this e-mail to all competent sceintists, so
    fell free to share please and come back to me – at best ASAP

    many regards
    stephan singer

    Stephan Singer
    Head of European Climate and Energy Policy Unit
    WWF, the conservation organization
    E-mail:
    ssinger@wwfepo.org
    *************************************************
    http://www.panda.org/epo – Stay up-to-date with WWF’s policy work in the
    capital of Europe
    http://www.passport.panda.org – take action on global conservation issues –
    have you got your Passport yet?
    *************************************************
    WWF European Policy Office
    36 avenue de Tervuren Box 12
    1040 Brussels, Belgium
    Tel: +32-2-743-8817
    Fax: +32-2-743-8819

  4. Jimchip Says:

    0884731847.txt SRES Storylines for modellers
    Subject: Invitation to the SRES meeting in Berkeley
    Date: Tue, 13 Jan 1998 17:50:47 +0100

    The main purpose of the meeting is to review the work progress of the four

    modeling groups that have been involved in first quantifications of the

    four storylines. My expectation is that we can harmonize various model

    runs into four initial scenarios. Thus, this will be primarily a modelers’

    meeting focusing on technical issues, storyline interpretation and

    consistency of first quantifications. It will not have the character of a

    Lead Authors meeting in the strict sense. It is nevertheless an important

    meeting for all modeling groups who have volunteered to quantify

    storylines, since this work needs to proceed in order for us to meet our

    original timetable and cannot be postponed until the next Lead Authors’

    meeting in the spring.

    From: Nebojsa Nakicenovic
    To: “Joseph M. Alcamo” , “Knut H. Alfsen” , Dennis Anderson , Zhou Dadi , “Gerald R. Davis” , Benjamin Dessus , Jae Edmonds , (although he cancelled) Joergen Fenhann , “Stuart R. Gaffin” , Henryk Gaj , Ken Gregory , “A. Gruebler” , Erik Haites , William Hare , Michael Hulme , Michael Jefferson , Tae-Yong Jung , Tom Kram , Emilio Lebre La Rovere , Mathew Luhanga , Douglas McKay , Julio Torres Martinez , Laurie Michaelis , Shunsuke Mori , Tsuneyuki Morita , Richard Moss , “Youssef H. Nassef” , William Pepper , “Hugh M. Pitcher” , Lynn Price , Hans-Holger Rogner , Cynthia Rosenzweig , “Jim F. Skea” , Priyadarshi Shukla , Leena Srivastava , Rob Swart , “H.J.M. de Vries” , “John P. Weyant” , Ernst Worrell

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