Section 1.8 Response

The terms of reference are as follows:

1.1 Examine the hacked e-mail exchanges, other relevant e-mail exchanges and any other information held at CRU to determine whether there is any evidence of the manipulation or suppression of data which is at odds with acceptable scientific practice and may therefore call into question any of the research outcomes.

ISSUES ARISING ON Para 1.1 OF THE TERMS OF REFERENCE

1. The allegation of ignoring potential problems in deducing palaeotemperatures from tree ring data that might undermine the validity of the so-called “hockey-stick” curve. In the late 20th century, the correlation between the tree ring record and instrumental record of temperature change diverges from that for the earlier period. The cause of this divergence does not appear to be understood. If the method used to deduce temperatures from tree ring proxy metrics for the earlier tree ring record is applied to the late 20th century tree ring series, then declining temperatures would be deduced for the late 20th century. It is alleged that if the cause of divergence between the tree ring and instrumental temperature record is unknown, it may have existed in earlier periods.  Therefore if tree rings had similarly failed to reflect the warming of the early Middle Ages, they may significantly under- estimate the warming during the Medieval Warm Period, thus falsely enhancing the contrast between the recent warming and that earlier period.  (It is this contrast that has led to statements that the late 20th century warming is unprecedented during at least the last 1000 years.)

QUESTIONS TO ADDRESS: 

8.  If tree ring proxies are removed from reconstructions, what evidence remains of the MWP?

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One Response to “Section 1.8 Response”

  1. Jimchip Says:

    http://climateaudit.org/2009/09/03/kaufmann-and-upside-down-mann/

    What does “matter” in these sorts of studies are a few HS-shaped series. Testing MBH without the Graybill bristlecones provoked screams of outrage – these obviously “mattered”. Indeed, in MBH, nothing else much “mattered”. The Yamal HS-shaped series (substituted in Briffa 2000 for the Polar Urals update which had a high MWP) plays a similar role in the few studies that don’t use Graybill bristlecones. The present study doesn’t use bristlecones, but Briffa’s Yamal substitution is predictably on hand. (See the latter part of my 2008 Erice presentation for some discussion of this.)

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